Ahead of BRICS Summit  in Brazil

Dmitry Suslov, Deputy Director of the Centre for Comprehensive European and International Studies at HSE University, Expert of the BRICS Expert Council-Russia about his expectations from the upcoming BRICS Summit  in Brazil.

First, I expect from the Summit  a clear position of the BRICS countries on key aspects of global governance and world economic development. Recently, the priority of development has significantly decreased due to the new arms race and the aggravation of the rivalry of the great powers. At the same time, many countries of the World Majority still face increasing problems of their development. And the priority of development is one of the main pillars of the Brazil’s Chairship, so I expect a clear statement from the Summit  about the need to prioritize development, not an arms race, that it is still necessary to increase budgets aimed at promoting international development, while both the United States and European countries are catastrophically reducing these budgets in favor of increasing military budgets.

President Lula is a staunch supporter of de-dollarization, so I expect some movement forward from the Summit to create new financial settlement instruments between the BRICS countries and, in general, for the World Majority, independent of the Western system, independent of the dollar. This remains one of the main priorities of the BRICS of recent times. I expect some movement forward in this direction.

I also expect from the BRICS Summit a serious and unequivocal condemnation of those measures to strengthen protectionist policies, which we also see today in the world, primarily from the United States. The transition of the United States to a system-protectionist policy is fraught, firstly, with a general increase in protectionism, violation of the free trade regime, and a weakening of globalization, in which the BRICS countries are still interested. I expect that the BRICS countries will advocate the need for normal non-politicized trade relations, oppose unilateral trade barriers, oppose tariff wars, oppose barrage duties, oppose protectionism and unilateral sanctions and for normal, non-politicized trade relations.

I expect from the BRICS Summit a traditional statement in support of global governance reform aimed at strengthening the position of the World majority. This means reform of decision-making systems in key international institutions, it means a general strengthening of the voice of the World Majority in the United Nations, UN reform, UN Security Council reform, and so on. Although the BRICS countries, due to contradictions related to Egypt and Ethiopia, were unable this year to develop a common position on the reform of the UN Security Council and, in particular, support for South Africa as a permanent member, nevertheless, in general, the BRICS countries are in favor of supporting global governance reform.

An important priority of the Brazil’s Chairship is the climate agenda. And here I expect, again, statements in support of measures to combat climate change and in support of helping developing countries, the countries of the world majority to adapt to the effects of climate change. And again, here the BRICS countries will oppose, criticize the measures that we are seeing, the policies that the Trump administration is now pursuing, which withdrew from the Paris Agreement to combat climate change, which does not consider climate issues a priority. I think that the BRICS countries, on the contrary, will support. I would like BRICS as an association to initiate a new climate agenda, which would be fairer and also focused on the development of developing countries, and would not be an instrument of protectionist policies. I expect that the Summit will indicate support for the Paris Agreement, support for common climate issues, but with a focus on the fact that it should be fair and aimed at promoting development, including the "green" development of developing countries.

I expect to hear a clear position of the BRICS countries on the situation in the Middle East. Shortly before the Summit, BRICS issued a joint statement by member countries condemning the aggression of Israel and the United States against Iran, and with concern that they hit nuclear facilities, which is fraught with radiation contamination and generally very serious negative consequences. In general, I expect from the Summit  criticism of the current US and Israel policy in the Middle East, critics of aggression against Iran - a BRICS member, a call to solve the Iranian problem by political and diplomatic means, and I also expect a serious position on the situation in Gaza, where actual genocide takes place, where Israel and the United States talk about the advisability of resettling more than a million people, Palestinians. And I expect the BRIC to condemn such intentions, such actions and once again speak out for the need to create a Palestinian state, an independent Palestinian state and, of course, against the war that Israel is waging in Gaza. And it is very important that this BRICS statement may take place right on the day Nitanyahu arrives in the United States. He is expected to arrive in the United States on July 7th. It was on this day that the BRICS countries will adopt a joint declaration.

On Ukraine, I expect some kind of short statement in the Summit declaration on support for a peaceful settlement, but with the elimination of the root causes of the conflict and taking into account the real security concerns of all countries.

As for the further development of BRICS itself as an association, I expect the first actual results of the activities of the BRICS partner countries. This will be the first BRICS Summit with the participation of partner countries. And all partner countries are expected to attend the Summit. Brazil also invited some other countries to take part in the Summit within the framework of the outreach and BRICS plus formats. I hope that following the results of this Summit , the partnership format can already be considered as really launched, as really working and effective, and giving certain results. Leaders of partner countries and representatives of BRICS partner countries are already involved in the work of the association, and not only at the Summit level, but also at workers at other levels too. And, accordingly, confirmation of the effectiveness of the partnership format is also a very important result of the Summit. I do not expect the Summit to announce proposals for joining the BRICS with new full members. Perhaps there will be some statements about the accession of other countries to the partnership format. But we'll see. The main thing is that this format has worked.